Field of Science

Obama can't lose

Charlie Cook, political journalist, offers six factors indicating that Obama will win in two weeks:
  1. No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
  2. Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
  3. The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
  4. Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
  5. There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
  6. Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

While I despise the system where the money matters to such an extreme extent in the election, I now realize that many people giving smaller amounts can actually outcontribute the rich donors. As a result Obama raised more money in September than the monthly domestic product of 46 countries ($150 million). So, the lesson is that this voting with your money does not necessarily always favor the GOP.

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